Tough times in Tehran

Jim Hanson

4 months ago

April 30, 2018

The tide is turning against the Mullah’s regime in Iran. US Secretary of State Pompeo just visited Saudi Arabia and Israel and both are on board with an ad hoc counter Iran coalition. The Israelis took out a lot of Iranian hardware, a couple of hundred missiles by some reports, and IRGC personnel in Syria with a strike yesterday.

And now the Israeli Prime Minister tells us Iran has been flagrantly violating the Iran Deal.

Iranian leaders have long said their nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. But Netanyahu on Monday revealed tens of thousands of pages of documents, which he said were copied from a “highly secret location” in Iran.

Those files detail Project Amad, which Netanyahu described as “a comprehensive program to design, build and test nuclear weapons.” He said the files provided “new and conclusive proof of the secret nuclear weapons program that Iran has been hiding for years from the international community in its secret atomic archive.”

The Mullahs themselves even claim to have more enrichment capability than before.  Add to this the collapse of Iran’s currency and a lot of internal unrest and it’s all going South for the Ayatollahs.

So, what happens next? Let’s take a look at some likely options:

  • President Trump is almost certain to declare an end to the Iran Deal based on these violations and the many fatal flaws in it.
  • The sanctions that were lifted by the deal will go back into effect and we will pressure the Europeans and the UN to join an even tougher set.
  • Or the Mullahs themselves pull out now that they’ve been paid and the charade is exposed.
  • The Israelis will continue to degrade the military threats Iran has given Hezbollah and is putting in Syria to try to deter an expected offensive against Israel from the North.
  • Saudi Arabia will make a renewed effort to finish off the Iranian proxy Houthis in Yemen to eliminate a threat to their country and shipping.

And those are just the likely ones, you could add:

  • The possibility of an Israeli or joint US and Israeli, or even a joint US, Israeli, Saudi strike on some of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
  • Announcement of Saudi help in Syria to stave off Iranian expansion.
  • A change to US policy saying regime change is the desired goal in Iran.

Interesting times and again credit is due to the Trump Administration for moving the ball forward on these difficult issues as well. The immediate action by Sec. State Pompeo is a welcome change from the slow rolling and even back pedaling that previously constituted our diplomatic efforts.

All of this makes things very dangerous, but also takes away the illusion that there was some sort of real brake on Iran. That was a lie from the start and at least now we can stop living in a  fantasy and operate from reality. We have been pointing out that Iran is the real threat for a long time now, this may provide the opening to do something about it.

About the Author

Jim Hanson

Jim served in US Army Special Forces and conducted Counter-Terrorism, Counter-Insurgency as well as Diplomatic, Intelligence and Humanitarian operations in more than a dozen countries. He is the author of Cut Down the Black Flag – A Plan to Defeat the Islamic State, and has appeared on Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, BBC, Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, C-Span, and numerous national radio shows.